BREAKOUT FLAGS
Players whose opportunity is expanding faster than their production has caught up to. One rule, one threshold: we project the receiving yards their recent usage should be producing, and flag the players running more than 8 yards a week ahead of their own output.
When this flag fires, the player sustains an expanded role over the next four weeks 53.3% of the time — against a 33.6% base rate.
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ON TRIALHOW WE COUNT THESE
93.3% of the flags we show end up gradable; the other 6.7% never resolve, because the player didn't play enough afterward. Whether a player appears again isn't knowable on a Thursday, so we show the flag anyway and count it honestly rather than quietly dropping the ones that can't be scored.
We only show you flags the measurement actually covers. The model fires more than it publishes — 644 reached customers across 2025, and the rest stayed internal, because a precision figure measured on one population doesn't transfer to another. The 53.3% above was measured on 287 flags inside a graded population of 1,725 player-weeks.
And we disclose the weak year: in 2023 this flag came in below the hot-streak control — worse than simply picking players already producing. three of four seasons beat the control, not four.