THE THURSDAY SHEET
GET THE SHEET
contract 95562a9f417f7c5b · 8a503de
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PROVEN-BLIND · 2025 SEASON THE MODEL NEVER SAW

WE PUBLISH
OUR MISSES.

The Thursday Sheet projects NFL player props every Thursday — and grades every prediction in public, against a standard we fixed before we measured.

SEE THIS WEEK'S SHEETSEE THE TRACK RECORD
THE RECORD
GRADED IN PUBLIC
14,321
blind predictions graded
6–9%
more accurate than the standard approach
80.0%
of outcomes land inside our 80% range
5 of 5
props beat both
baselines
Measured on the 2025 season, which the model never saw during training. How we know →

EVERY THURSDAY

THE SHEET
Projections for ~225 players across five props — targets, receptions, receiving yards, carries, rushing yards — with the honest range on each.
OPEN THE SHEET →
THE FLAGS
Players our breakout signal says are about to see a bigger role, with the opportunity gap that fired it.
SEE THE FLAGS →
THE GRADE
Last week's predictions, scored against what actually happened. Automatically. Publicly. Whether it was a good week or not.
READ THE RECEIPTS →

WE TESTED ON A SEASON THE MODEL NEVER SAW.

The 2025 season was held out of fitting and tuning. The model never saw it while it was being built, so when we walked it forward through the season one week at a time — projecting each week from what was knowable that Thursday — the results were a test, not a description.

And every bar was committed to git before the number that would be measured against it. You can check the order in the repo: the standard is timestamped earlier than the result, so it could not be moved to fit what came back.

What that does not mean: these bars were not registered before the 2025 season was played. They could not have been — this work began in 2026, after the season finished. Anyone claiming a pre-season lock on 2025 results, us included, would be claiming something that does not exist. What we have is held-out data and a bar that predates its own measurement.

contract 95562a9f417f7c5b · computed from 8a503de
READ THE METHOD →
NOT CLAIMED

WHAT WE WON'T TELL YOU

Nobody can predict a receiver's yardage within ten yards. Not us, not anyone — week-to-week football variance dominates the error for any predictor, including one that knows a player's true season average in advance.

So we don't pretend. We give you a point estimate and an honest range, and we tell you how wide that range really is.

On targets and carries we publish no range at all, because ours are not calibrated there. See why →

START WITH THE RECEIPTS.
Don't take our word for it. The full track record is free, forever.
SEE THE TRACK RECORDGET THIS WEEK'S SHEET
WE PUBLISH OUR MISSES